2024 Booker Prize Longlist Predictions

It’s my favorite time of the year: Booker season! Every year our panel comes together to read and review all the booker nominees and to predict the winners. This year’s longlist will be announced on July 30. Every year we try and most years we fail spectacularly to get more than 3 correct predictions each. Will we have better luck this year? Keep reading to find out who we all selected and let us know what you think.

Edmund de Waal is the chair of this year’s Booker Prize judges. He is known internationally as both an artist and writer and his family memoir, The Hare with Amber Eyes won the Costa Book award and the Ondaatje Prize. He is joined on the panel by author, literary critic, and broadcaster Sara Collins, fiction editor at the Guardian Justine Jordan, author and professor Yiyun Li, and producer, songwriter and artist Nitin Sawhney.

Judges are looking for the “best work of long-form fiction” (Booker website). Novels are eligible if they were published in the UK or Ireland between October 1 2023 and September 30, 2024 in English as the original language (no translated works). Entries must be submitted by publishers and not authors and there are limits to the number of books each publisher is allowed to submit which varies based on how many past books they have had longlisted (so major publishing houses will have more submissions). To learn more about the prize and the judges please visit the bookerprize.com.

And now onto our panel’s predictions. To read more about each book or to purchase a copy for yourself, simply click on the book title in our lists.

My (Jen) Predictions: I have spent more time than usual preparing for this year’s predictions. Unfortunately most of the books I chose to read ahead of time, aren’t books I think should make the longlist, although several were quite good the my time was well spent. Since my overall success in correctly predicting longlist books is negatively correlated the how much research and advanced reading I do, I wouldn’t rely closely on my list. Here’s my list in no particular order:

• This Plague of Souls by Mike McCormack.This is a pick based on my personal preference, namely that I would like to see it on the list. I loved Solar Bones (see my review here) and I think McCormack is a brilliant writer. Like its predecessor, Plague of Souls gets lots of mixed reviews. Lot of people hated it. Read my review here.
• James by Percival Everett. This book should make this list. Will the fact that it will win the Pulitzer (I bet money on this), or that it’s very American hamper its chances? Maybe. Read my review here.
• Parade by Rachel Cusk. Cusk’s writing isn’t really my cup of tea. I find her writing fairly pretentious and while she writes about topics that I think are important and highly relevant, she does so in a way that makes her works accessible to mostly the high-brow literary type folks. I often joke that you need a PhD to understand Cusk. That said, several of the judges have connection to the art world, and like her other works, this work centers on the art world. Read my review here.
• Praiseworthy by Alexis Wright. This book has won pretty much all the other awards. Booker doesn’t usually follow suit but clearly this book is worthy. I have not been able to make it beyond the first 20 pages. It’s very dense and difficult to read.
• Choice by Neel Mukherjee. I really enjoyed this book and hope it makes it.
• Caledonian Road by Andrew O’Hagan.
• The Road to the Country by Chigozie Obioma. Twice-listed author and the novel gets good reviews. I own it but haven’t read it. I think I have to be in the right mindset to read it since I’ve heard it’s particularly gruesome (not surprising since it’s about war).
• Whale Fall by Elizabeth O’Connor
• My Friends by Hasham Matar
• Martyr! by Kaveh Akbar
• This Strange Eventful History by Claire Messud
• Blackouts by Justin Torres
• River East, River West by Aube Rey Lescue

Tracy’s Predictions: I spend WAY too much time trying to predict what this list will be, just to be completely wrong every year. I just watched a Booktuber who had a randomizer pick from the Goodreads list, and I’m thinking he’s got as good a chance as anyone. (maybe that’s what I should have done)

• My Friends- Hasham Matar
• Wild Houses– Colin Barrett
• River East, River West- Aube Rey Lescure
• This Strange Eventful History- Claire Messud
• Headshot– Rita Bullwinkel
• The History of a Difficult Child– Mihret Sibhat
• Choice- Neel Mukherjee
• Jaded– Ela Lee
• The Great Undoing– Sharlene Allsop
• Say Hello to My Little Friend– Jennine Capo Crucet
• Caledonian Road- Andrew O’Hagan
• The Lost Love Songs of Boysie Singh– Ingrid Persaud
• James- Percival Everett- only because it’s a work of absolute genius, but I think it’s going to be the criminally shunned book this year.

Nicole’s Predictions: I spend December – July every year trying to read what I hope will be Booker nominees. It rarely lands me any solid predictions, but I’ve discovered some great authors (Catherine Chidgey comes to mind) and read some amazing books. This year nothing has stood out as Booker-worthy. Thus, I will be making a complete guess based on other people’s predictions. There’s a lot of talk that a woman winning this year….I wonder if that ever really factors in. This list is most certainly not a wishlist for me, I don’t think Praiseworthy will appeal to me, and I’m not keen to read another Obioma.

• James – Percival Everett
• The Road to the Country – Chigozie Obioma
• Heart, Be At Peace – Donal Ryan
• The Fertile Earth – Ruthvika Rao
• Praiseworthy – Alexis Wright
• The Coin – Yasmin Zahar (actually loved this one, not really Booker material, but it was good)
• The Lost Love Songs of Boysie Singh- Ingrid Persaud
• Crooked Seeds – Karen Jennings
• Phanton Limb – Chris Kohler
• Long Island – Colm Toibin
• Orbital – Samantha Harvey
• The Extinction of Irena Rey – Jennifer Croft
• Hagstone – Sinead Gleeson

Lisa’s predictions:

I choose my list every year based on a combination of books I’ve read, authors I’ve loved, New York Times book reviews, and experimental books that just might make it even though they are difficult to read. Here it is:

• James by Percival Everett
• How I won a Nobel Prize by Julius Taranto
• Parasol Against the Axe by Helen Oyeyemi
• Wellness by Nathan Hill
• Blackouts by Justin Torres
• Day by Michael Cunningham
• Wandering Stars by Tommy Orange
• Loot by Tania James
• This Strange Eventful History by Claire Messud
• The Mighty Red by Louise Erdrich
• The Coin by Yasmin Zaher
• Heart Be at Peace by Donal Ryan

Anita’s predictions: Basically, I’m terrible at predicting so take these for the complete stab in the dark that they are. Most of the books below are books I’m either very excited to read, OR books I know I really don’t want to read and therefore, in accordance with Murphy’s Law, are bound to be on the list! I put a asterisk next to the ones I actually am hoping for!

• James* by Percival Everett
• The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store by James McBride (Read this. Not a fan, but I seem alone on that sentiment)
• My Friends* by Hisham Mater
• Long Island by Colm Toibin
• Choice* by Neel Mukherjee
• Wild Houses* by Colin Barrett
• The Ministry of Time by Kaliane Bradley (please no)
• Let Us Descend* by Jesymyn Ward
• Playground by Richard Powers
• This Strange Eventful History by Claire Messud (my least favorite literary author so a definite)
• The Alternatives* by Caoilinn Hughes
• Parade* by Rachel Cusk
• Blackouts by Justin Torres

As a collective group, we predicted 40 unique books. James appeareds on all lists. This Strange Eventful History made it onto 4 lists. Choice, My Friends, Blackouts, and Caledonian Road made it onto 3 of our lists.

We want to hear from you. What books did we miss? Who do you think has the best prediction list and why?