2024 Booker shortlist predictions
The time has come for our shortlist predictions. We’ve spent the last few months reading all the longlist books and rating the nominees. Keep reading to see which books topped our collective list and what panelists picked as their personal predictions.
Each year the panel reviews books and scores them on the following categories: writing, plot development, character development, originality, and enjoyment. Of course ratings are highly subjective and often influenced by which books we liked the most. This year in particular our panelists diverged pretty substantially on their ratings, but according to our rating method, we ended up with the following ranked order list.
Our panel’s Rankings
- James: 19.2
- Playground: 18.67
- The Safekeep 18.5
- Stone Yard Devotional 17.2
- My Friends: 16
- Held 15.8
- TIE: Wild Houses & Creation Lake 14.75
- —-
- Wandering Stars: 13.5
- Enlightenment: 12.5
- Headshot: 12.1
- Orbital 11.25
- This Strange Eventful History: 6.5
Jen’s Predictions: Honestly, I have no idea because I feel astounded that half the books on the longlist even made it on to that. Part of me wants to pick all the musing reflective books since that’s what the judges wanted this year.
- James (I will protest the booker if this doesn’t make the list).
- Orbital
- This Strange Eventful History
- Stone Yard Devotional (I hope this makes it, I’m skeptical)
- Creation Lake
- My Friends
Nicole’s Predictions: What a year! The disparity in quality of the books was astonishing. There is no conceivable world where Playground should be on the same list as Headshot, and yet that’s what you are about to see. Headshot was so undeserving of being on the longlist, that I am predicting it will make the shortlist. How’s that for logic? The rest of the list are books I loved, and honestly – will be disheartened to see any of them not make the list.
- Playground
- Stone Yard Devotional
- James
- The Safekeep
- Held
- Headshot
Tracy’s Predictions: I got through the whole list, and I found some good books, some okay books, and a stinker (thanks, Claire Messud). The conundrum is how to choose the books on my predictions list. In the past, I’ve chosen the ones I’ve liked least, hoping that I’d be wrong. But this time, I’m just going to go with my logic. Which is just as flawed a system, so here we go.
- Stone Yard Devotional
- The Safekeep
- My Friends
- Headshot
- Held
- James
Anita’s Predictions: Truth be told, I only was able to read 5 1/2 books on the longlist, but I really thought I made some great selections. There was only one book I read that I felt didn’t really deserve to be on the longlist, never mind the shortlist, but popular opinion doesn’t agree with me, so it’s #6 on my shortlist prediction. My predictions aren’t based solely on my personal opinions, but rather on what I think the judges are going to ultimately decide.
- Stone Yard Devotional
- James
- Playground
- Held
- Orbital
- My Friends
Lisa’s Predictions: I usually pick books based on what I like. I can’t get into the judges’ heads, so I just stay in my own and hope for the best.
- James
- Playground
- Stone Yard Devotional
- Creation Lake
- The Safekeep
- Wild Houses
Which books do you predict will make the shortlist? Which of our panelists will predict the most shortlist books?
jenp27
Nicole Del Sesto
The Reader's Room 
I have been looking at Good Reads and based on ratings by readers, it would be James, Playground, My Friends, Safe Keep, Orbital and Wandering Stars.
I hope the first three there are listed as they are all ones I want to read (and after the list is announced I will finish my current one and then focus on whatever is listed (getting through the short list is usually success for me)).
I have read Orbital, Stone Yard, Wandering Stars and Wild Houses. And that would be my order so far. Currently reading This Strange Eventual History, about 150 pages in.
I thought Orbital was beautiful. Something really different 🙂 But I enjoyed reading all so far, and while I don’t ‘love’ them, so far I haven’t found a book I hate. Perhaps I am a little like Jen, the stories are good, lovely to read, but they are nothing like the year I got into reading the Booker, when there was books like Animals People, The Gift of Rain, Mr Pip, The Reluctant Fundamentalist, the Gathering, books that I thought were epic, but recently I have read books that I prefer than all the four I have read so far like, Raw Shark Texts by Steven Hall, Piranesi by Susanna Clarke and Cairo, by Chris Womersley. which in my rating system are above all the four Booker ones.
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I loved Piranesi. I read Raw Shark Texts years ago – don’t remember it at all.
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I think Raw Shark Texts warrants a re-read if you ever have time, there are so many good books to read. I read it years ago, but I liked it more when I reread it about 2 months ago. The mental distress of it all was more evident and obvious on the second read.
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Also loved Piranesi.
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Most of us got 4 but different 4’s – lisa got 5 out of 6 if I read that right!
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I think Lisa is 4 also. We did well with predicting this time!
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Im pretty happy with the shortlist after not loving the longlist.
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same.
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You all had either Playground or My Friends, I am both surprised and not that neither made it… but you all had James, so I am really glad that made it!
I am glad about Orbital and Stone Yard being the top 2 of the 4 I had read… Looking forward to now reading the other four and then I will read your reviews of them and make comment as I go.
But for you guys that have read all of them… what now? you return to the 1001 books? and which one?
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I’ve been reading mostly more recent novels lately so probably just more literary fiction reviews. If my co-blogger returns (she is on a break) we will get back to 1001 books too.
I hope you like the other books on the list!
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I’m going to be reading the National Book Award long list- all the fiction, as many poetry as my library has, some of the nonfiction, and the translated books.
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